Confidence & Probability Calibration Training
This tool helps you train probability calibration using interval estimation. You answer factual questions by giving a range where you are 80% confident the true value lies.
Well-calibrated judgment means that about 8 out of 10 answers should fall inside your stated ranges. This type of training is commonly used in decision science, forecasting, and uncertainty estimation to reduce overconfidence and underconfidence.
Similar techniques are used in superforecasting, confidence calibration exercises, and uncertainty training to improve probabilistic reasoning.
What this tests
- Confidence calibration
- Interval estimation accuracy
- Overconfidence vs underconfidence
- Uncertainty estimation skill
Confidence & Probability Calibration
Train interval estimation and uncertainty calibration using 80% confidence intervals
How it works
You'll get 10 random questions. For each, provide a range where you're 80% confident the true answer lies. If you are well calibrated, about 8 out of 10 answers should fall within your ranges over time. This is a standard interval-estimation calibration exercise used in uncertainty and forecasting training.